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[1%] Free Play on SMU

#745 ASA FREE PLAY ON Nebraska Omaha -4 over Denver, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - Denver is in a freefall losing 7 straight games including their last 3 at home. Their last 2 home games were blowout losses at the hands of North Dakota and North Dakota State, 2 teams that Omaha beat on the road this year. Denver has a 6-13 record, however 3 of those wins came vs non D1 opponents. That means they have just 3 wins vs D1 opponents and 2 of those wins came by 1 point. They rank outside the top 300 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and they’ve allowed at least 90 points in 4 of their last 6 games. Of their 13 losses, all but 1 has been by at least 7 points and if we throw out their game vs non D1 teams, this Denver team has a -10.5 PPG margin on the season (that includes their 3 wins). Omaha is still a bit undervalued in our opinion. They started the season poorly but have since won 6 straight games outright including 4 as an underdog. That run includes wins over South Dakota State and North Dakota State, 2 of the top 3 teams in the Summit League. They’ve scored 80+ points in 5 of those 6 games and Denver’s defense (ranked 347th in efficiency) won’t be able to slow this team down. Omaha won here last season by 19 points and we look for another win and cover for the Mavs tonight.

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Wednesday's NBA Free Pick

PLAY ON: Magic +5.5 

Wednesday NBA Free play. My selection is on Boston minus the points over Toronto at 7:40 pm ET on Wednesday.

The Celtics will look to break their two-game ATS slide as they head to Toronto. Boston has been alternating wins and losses in recent games but boasts a strong 28-11 record on the season. The Raptors, on the other hand, enter this matchup at a dismal 9-31. While Toronto pulled off an 'upset' win over the Warriors at home on Monday, their season-long struggles make it difficult to trust them to string together consecutive strong performances.

Boston, idle since a one-point win over New Orleans on Sunday, should come into this game fresh and focused. When these teams met on New Year's Eve, the Celtics cruised to a lopsided 125-71 victory, highlighting their superiority in this matchup.

Expect Boston to dominate once again on both ends of the floor.

Take Boston. Projected score: Boston 116, Toronto 92.

We like the Tottenham @ Arsenal game to finish UNDER the total on Wednesday at 3:00pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Tottenham had real trouble against Tamworth in the FA Cup over the weekend.

Spurs only scored three goals, and they all came in Extra-Time after the final 90 had eclipsed.

They will need to be tight and compact defensively to have a shot at winning this game.

Arsenal will still be without its top attacking weapon in Bukayo Saka.

The Gunners (with their opponents) have seen less than three goals in three matches in a row.

We think that 3.5 is too high for this North London Derby.

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